Active Storms and Areas of Potential Development
(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path.)- A subtropical storm in the eastern Atlantic broke the record for most storms in any hurricane season.
- Theta topped the previous record from the 2005 hurricane season.
- A tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea could become the 30th storm later this week.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has already shattered the record for named storms. If history is any guide, it may continue to blow past that previous record set 15 years ago.
Monday night, Subtropical Storm Theta became the 29th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, topping the previous record of storms in any season, 28, set in 2005.
There's also a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea that is likely to develop later this week. If that becomes a tropical storm, it would become the 30th named storm of 2020, earning the next name in the Greek alphabet, Iota.
Thirty named storms in one hurricane season. Let that sink in for a moment.
The average number in any season is only 12 to 13.
So, how many more storms could form the remainder of this historic hurricane season?
Past Novembers, Decembers, Januaries and Februaries
From 1950 through 2019, 35 storms have formed in November, an average of one storm every other year.
So, we've already met that November benchmark in 2020.
In that same 70-year period, 10 storms formed in December, and four storms formed in either January or February.
The last storms to form after the official hurricane season's end of Nov. 30 were Hurricane Alex in January 2016 and an unnamed tropical storm in early December 2013.
Tracks of all global known global tropical cyclones from 1842 through January 2016. The track of Hurricane Alex in January 2016 is highlighted.
(NASA/Joshua Stevens)How More Active Seasons Ended
Let's examine past seasons that were as active or more so than 2020 to see how many delivered more storms from this point on.
According to Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach, only three other years had more named storm days than 2020: 2005, 1995 and 1933. Named storm days, by the way, are just as they sound. For each 24-hour period a system is at least a tropical or subtropical storm, it counts as one named storm day.
Those three hurricane seasons produced the following named storm tallies after Nov. 10:
-2005: 4
-1995: 0
-1933: 1
The previous record-holding season for storms, 2005, produced Gamma, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta after Nov. 10, with Zeta lasting until early January 2006.
Tracks of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season's Greek storms.
(Data: NOAA/NHC)If the 2020 season ended like 2005 with four more storms, our season total would end up with an unfathomable 33 storms, taking us halfway through the Greek alphabet ending with Mu.
Another way to look at this is through a metric called the ACE index.
Short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, ACE takes into account not just the number but also the intensity and longevity of storms and hurricanes.
According to data compiled by Klotzbach through Nov. 9, there have been only 21 hurricane seasons with a higher ACE index than 2020.
Eleven of those 21 seasons had at least one additional storm form after Nov. 10, with numbers of additional named storms ranging from one to four.
There were 21 Atlantic hurricane seasons which had a higher ACE index than the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season as of Nov. 10, 2020. Here, we show which of the 21 seasons generated additional storms after Nov. 10.
(Data: NOAA/NHC and Phil Klotzbach; Graph: Infogram)So, while it looks likely we'll soon reach that 30 storm threshold for the first time on record, there is historical precedent for that number to climb a few more notches before we can finally close the book on the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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November 11, 2020 at 05:32AM
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30 Storms in a Record Hurricane Season; Here's How Many More Could Form | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com - The Weather Channel
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