By RJ Kraft | Wednesday, March 31, 2021
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A few reminders:
-- All point totals are reset to 2,000 for the 16 eligible playoff drivers.
-- Drivers earn five playoff points for each of their regular-season wins.
-- Drivers earn one playoff point for each stage win.
-- The top 10 finishers in the regular-season standings earn playoff points on a sliding scale, starting with 15 points for the Regular Season Champion and ending on one point for the 10th-place finisher.
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Chris Buescher (17th in the standings, -4 points to 16th)
Ryan Preece (18th in the standings, -18 points to 16th)
Ryan Newman (19th in the standings, -23 points to 16th)
Daniel Suarez (20th in the standings, -28 points to 16th)
Bubba Wallace (21st in the standings, -36 points to 16th)
In addition, three drivers who made the 2020 playoff field are outside the playoff picture right now:
Cole Custer (23rd in the standings, -54 points to 16th)
Matt DiBenedetto (24th in the standings, -55 points to 16th)
Aric Almirola (28th in the standings, -84 points to 16th)
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16. Kurt Busch: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: After two top 10s in the season's first three races, the 2004 champion has finished no better than 15th in the last four races. Richmond is his biggest opportunity in the coming weeks as he has two wins there.
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15. Alex Bowman: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: It has been an up-and-down start to the season for Bowman with three top 10s but also three finishes outside the top 20. The upcoming schedule is favorable as he scored two top-six finishes at Martinsville last year, has three straight top 10s in the spring at Talladega and Kansas has been one of his best tracks of late (five top 10s in his last seven starts).
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14. Austin Dillon: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Dillon has been a top-12 finisher in four of the season's first seven races. Richmond and Darlington stand as his biggest opportunities in the coming weeks; he has three top-six finishes in his last four Richmond starts, while Darlington is his best track based on average finish.
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13. Kyle Busch: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: The early returns on 2021 seem to be quite similar to the 2020 season for the two-time champion. He has top 10s at the three 1.5-mile range tracks run, so that's a promising sign. The stretch of back-to-back short tracks has been a boon to Busch in the past. He has two wins at Martinsville in the last six years, and Richmond stands as his second-best track overall by average finish -- and he has six wins there.
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12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: 2,000 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Fresh off his runner-up finish at Bristol, Stenhouse jumps into the playoff picture. In his ninth full-time season, the Mississippi native has put together a solid and steady start to the season with no finish worse than 18th and a string of top-15 showings to stay in the playoff mix. Talladega will be a welcome sight for him as he has a win, nine top 10s in 15 starts and the 2.66-mile track is home to his best average finish among tracks with at least two starts.
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11. Kevin Harvick: 2,003 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Harvick is credited in this projection with three playoff points based on his current regular-season point standings position of eighth. Still, it's weird to see him this low and with no race or stage wins to his name, especially after he notched nine and seven of those, respectively, in 2020. Darlington stands as his best opportunity to come as he won two of the three races contested there last year.
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10. Chase Elliott: 2,003 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: In addition to a stage win, Elliott has two additional playoff points in this projected for sitting ninth in the point standings. The reigning Cup champ has had a seesaw start to the season, but there are plenty of opportunities coming with five more road courses on the regular-season schedule. Before that, Martinsville is up next, and he is the most recent winner there.
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9. Michael McDowell: 2,005 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona 500)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: The Daytona 500 winner is the surprise of the playoff picture to date, and he helped kick off the seven different winners in as many races run to begin the 2021 season. He has cooled off a bit since a trio of top 10s to open the year. The veteran's biggest opportunities on the schedule are the five remaining regular-season road courses, starting with COTA in May.
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8. Christopher Bell: 2,006 points
Qualified by: Win (Daytona Road Course)
Stage wins: 0
Quick hit: Two starts into his first Cup season with Joe Gibbs Racing, Bell grabbed victory. Like many a young driver, he has been up-and-down to start the year with three top 10s but also three finishes of 20th or worse. He picks up an extra playoff point in this projection based on his current standings position of 10th.
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7. Brad Keselowski: 2,007 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Keselowski sits fifth in the regular-season point standings, so that gives him six projected playoff points to go with his stage win. He has some extra pep on the intermediates this year, but his best bet at wins is going to come at tracks where the 750-horsepower package is used. Two of them are up next in Martinsville and Richmond -- the 2012 champ had a dominating performance at the 0.75-mile track in the Virginia capital last year.
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6. Ryan Blaney: 2,010 points
Qualified by: Win (Atlanta)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: Is this the season Blaney clicks off multiple wins and gives himself a bit of a playoff-point cushion for a tricky Round of 16 for him? It sure feels like it as he has four straight top 10s. That momentum should continue at Martinsville, where he has four straight top-five finishes and five such finishes in his last six races there.
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5. William Byron: 2,011 points
Qualified by: Win (Miami)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: With a win in the bank, all Byron has done since then is click off top 10s with four in a row with new crew chief Rudy Fugle. The fourth-year driver has limited histories at most tracks, but Kansas (three straight top 10s) and Darlington (a top five last fall and he has already run well at high-wear tracks like Miami and Atlanta this year) stand out as ones to watch.
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4. Martin Truex Jr.: 2,014 points
Qualified by: Win (Phoenix)
Stage wins: 1
Quick hit: The 2017 champion has gotten off to a strong start thanks to more familiarity with second-year crew chief James Small. He should have ample opportunities to add to his playoff point bucket. The upcoming Martinsville-Richmond swing could be a boon for Truex as he has won four of the last six races run at the two tracks combined -- he has two wins at each.
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3. Kyle Larson: 2,015 points
Qualified by: Win (Las Vegas)
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Four races into his Hendrick tenure, Larson returned to Victory Lane. The No. 5 car has been in a class of its own on intermediates, and that stands as the best opportunities for Larson to add more wins and playoff points to his name. A sneaky track that also bares watching for Larson? Richmond, where he has a win and five top-seven finishes in his last seven starts.
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2. Joey Logano: 2,017 points
Qualified by: Win (Bristol dirt)
Stage wins: 2
Quick hit: Logano had seemingly been knocking on the door all season before his Bristol win -- led at the white-flag lap in the Daytona 500, led late on the Daytona Road Course and was the runner-up at Phoenix. As evidenced by the Bristol win, the 2018 champion is simply a threat to win anywhere. He has nine of his 27 Cup wins at the next four tracks -- Martinsville (1), Richmond (2), Talladega (3) and Kansas (3).
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1. Denny Hamlin: 2,018 points
Qualified by: Points
Stage wins: 3
Quick hit: Hamlin serves as the projected regular-season champion, so that adds 15 playoff points to his total. He has done everything but win as he has been the Cup Series' most consistent driver with six top fives in seven races. The wins are coming -- Darlington, Richmond and Martinsville rank in his top six tracks on average finish, and he won at Talladega, Kansas and Dover (as well as Darlington) in 2020. It would be stunning if he didn't have at least one win over the next six races.
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