Latin America is having a terrible coronavirus crisis. Early optimism that the region might escape the worst of the pandemic quickly gave way to the stark reality of sharply rising death tolls. Brazil is now the worst affected country in the developing world. Peru has almost as many infections as India, a country with a population 42 times larger.
Bungled responses in several Latin nations made matters worse. The populist presidents of Brazil and Mexico adopted a policy of denial early on, cheerily greeting crowds of supporters with hugs and handshakes even as Europe was locking down. Brazil’s hard-right leader Jair Bolsonaro dismissed Covid-19 as “a little flu” and told his people to “face the virus like a man, dammit”. He attacked state governors who imposed their own lockdowns and fired his respected health minister (the official who replaced him resigned after less than a month). Mr Bolsonaro appears to be betting that the peak of infections will come soon and that he can escape blame for the economic damage caused by the lockdowns. This risky gamble with the health of 210m Brazilians looks unlikely to pay off.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the veteran left-winger leading Mexico, violated health protocols to shake hands with the mother of the country’s most notorious convicted drug trafficker and vowed publicly that a six-leafed clover would protect him from the virus. Mounting public alarm forced Mr López Obrador into a partial U-turn and his government now claims that the peak of infections has been reached. Reports of overcrowded morgues and packed hospitals, however, suggest otherwise. Testing in Mexico is among the world’s lowest, making plans to start reopening the economy this week hazardous.
Other Latin American countries tried to do the right thing but still found themselves in trouble. Peru and Ecuador were among the first nations in the region to announce tight lockdowns. Yet infection rates in both are among the worst in the Americas; the exact reasons are still unclear but one explanation is that multiple early infections went undetected.
Not all is gloom. Colombia, with a record of mostly pragmatic government, acted swiftly and decisively and appears to have escaped the worst so far. Argentina’s populist president Alberto Fernández is winning public acclaim for locking down early and hard, despite the heavy cost to an economy that was already struggling with recession. Costa Rica and Uruguay are reaping the benefits of investment in public health with infection totals that are lower than those even in New Zealand.
What no country in the region will escape is the devastating economic impact. Latin America was the world’s slowest growing region even before the coronavirus crisis. Now, Covid-19’s impact on commodity prices, tourism and remittances is hurting the region particularly hard. Fragile public finances and massive capital flight limit governments’ room for fiscal responses. The region’s large informal economy, covering about half of all workers, makes lockdowns hard to enforce and even harder to sustain.
While the coronavirus crisis has cruelly exposed Latin America’s economic weakness, the political consequences are less clear. So far, previously less-liked centre-right presidents in Chile and Colombia have received a boost in the polls, while the risky bets by the populist leaders of Mexico and Brazil have yet to be judged. What is already obvious is the value of sustained investment in public health and evidence-based public policy. The region could do with much more of both.
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May 19, 2020 at 04:06PM
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Virus lays bare Latin America’s many woes - Financial Times
"Many" - Google News
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