WASHINGTON — For Senate Republicans, it’s now all about self-preservation.
As their grip on the Senate majority teeters while President Trump’s political standing plummets, their fate could well be determined by their ability to produce a sweeping pandemic recovery package before the election. But their frantic attempts to do so have so far produced little more than deep division in their ranks and with Mr. Trump — not the place they wanted to be 100 days out from a decisive race.
Their uncertain fortunes appear to have stiffened Republicans’ resolve to do something they rarely try: distance themselves, however gingerly, from Mr. Trump. They have jettisoned the president’s call for a payroll tax cut, drawing a resentful response from him on Twitter.
“The Democrats have stated strongly that they won’t approve a Payroll Tax Cut (too bad!)” Mr. Trump wrote, adding, “The Republicans, therefore, didn’t want to ask for it."
In truth, it was Republicans who were not interested in a tax cut they saw as ineffective.
They rejected the administration’s plan to omit money for coronavirus testing — an effort many senior Republicans see as crucial to reopening the country and stabilizing the economy — and to defund schools that fail to resume in-person classes in the fall. And on Thursday, they were resisting Mr. Trump’s attempts to use the measure as a vehicle to address one of his longtime obsessions: the F.B.I.’s Brutalist-style headquarters in downtown Washington, situated across the street from his luxury hotel.
Republicans said they were nearing agreement on a $1 trillion package that would be introduced on Monday, but the tortured process that they went through to get there has weakened their negotiating hand relative to Democrats, who are pressing for a $3 trillion plan. And it has dramatized the growing divergence between their interests and Mr. Trump’s instincts.
Even as they privately haggled over the aid bill on Thursday, Republicans publicly defied Mr. Trump on another matter, voting for the annual military policy bill that he has threatened to veto over its requirement that the Pentagon rename bases named for Confederate figures. Many Republicans believed his stance was out of step with public opinion amid a nationwide conversation about racism in the United States.
The immediate challenge for Republicans is to produce an economic recovery plan before the expiration, in fewer than 10 days, of extra jobless benefits that tens of millions of Americans are living on. After days of promising to unveil their starting point for talks, Senate Republicans exited steamy Washington Thursday afternoon with little to show for days of back-room dickering — an embarrassing failure given the short time remaining before a planned August recess. At the weekly lunch before they headed out, senators said they talked more about the crab bisque and alligator sausage provided by Senator John Kennedy, Republican of Louisiana, than the political stew in which they found themselves.
One problem is that virtually everyone has his or her own idea about the best way to proceed, and some feel shut out of the talks altogether.
“I think there’s a range of opinions out there,” said Senator Lisa Murkowski, Republican of Alaska. “And that’s why this process is frustrating, because you’re not really allowing all 100 of us to get into that great messy deliberation — and it is messy.”
Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, has made it painfully clear to his colleagues that any final legislation has to be acceptable to most of them, the White House and Democrats in the Senate and House, where Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already pushed through a measure three times as large as the one Republicans are considering.
That spread is driving off some Senate conservatives who fear that Mr. McConnell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are preparing to give away the store to appease Democrats. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, among others, suggested that Republicans should just stand pat, declining to agree to additional spending. The more Republicans who choose to do so, the more heavily Mr. McConnell will need to rely on Democratic votes to pass the package.
The idea that Republicans should do nothing more on the pandemic before the election appears to be a minority view among Mr. Cruz’s colleagues. Many others recognize that embattled incumbents like Senators Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona and Thom Tillis of North Carolina can hardly return home to campaign through August and tell tens of thousands of anxious jobless voters that, sorry, the expanded unemployment benefits have run out and, no, schools will not be receiving the extra money educators say they need.
Republicans recognize the gravity of the situation, even if they appear stuck for the moment.
During a private party lunch this week, Senator Tom Cotton, an archconservative from Arkansas, said Republicans should listen to what their colleagues who are facing the voters in November are hearing from constituents and try to accommodate them, even if it is costly. Should Republicans fail to deliver, Mr. Cotton warned, then Democrats are likely to win the White House and take over the Senate and ultimately enact something much more expensive and unacceptable to Republicans.
The Coronavirus Outbreak ›
Frequently Asked Questions
Updated July 23, 2020
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What is school going to look like in September?
- It is unlikely that many schools will return to a normal schedule this fall, requiring the grind of online learning, makeshift child care and stunted workdays to continue. California’s two largest public school districts — Los Angeles and San Diego — said on July 13, that instruction will be remote-only in the fall, citing concerns that surging coronavirus infections in their areas pose too dire a risk for students and teachers. Together, the two districts enroll some 825,000 students. They are the largest in the country so far to abandon plans for even a partial physical return to classrooms when they reopen in August. For other districts, the solution won’t be an all-or-nothing approach. Many systems, including the nation’s largest, New York City, are devising hybrid plans that involve spending some days in classrooms and other days online. There’s no national policy on this yet, so check with your municipal school system regularly to see what is happening in your community.
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Is the coronavirus airborne?
- The coronavirus can stay aloft for hours in tiny droplets in stagnant air, infecting people as they inhale, mounting scientific evidence suggests. This risk is highest in crowded indoor spaces with poor ventilation, and may help explain super-spreading events reported in meatpacking plants, churches and restaurants. It’s unclear how often the virus is spread via these tiny droplets, or aerosols, compared with larger droplets that are expelled when a sick person coughs or sneezes, or transmitted through contact with contaminated surfaces, said Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert at Virginia Tech. Aerosols are released even when a person without symptoms exhales, talks or sings, according to Dr. Marr and more than 200 other experts, who have outlined the evidence in an open letter to the World Health Organization.
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What are the symptoms of coronavirus?
- Common symptoms include fever, a dry cough, fatigue and difficulty breathing or shortness of breath. Some of these symptoms overlap with those of the flu, making detection difficult, but runny noses and stuffy sinuses are less common. The C.D.C. has also added chills, muscle pain, sore throat, headache and a new loss of the sense of taste or smell as symptoms to look out for. Most people fall ill five to seven days after exposure, but symptoms may appear in as few as two days or as many as 14 days.
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What’s the best material for a mask?
- Scientists around the country have tried to identify everyday materials that do a good job of filtering microscopic particles. In recent tests, HEPA furnace filters scored high, as did vacuum cleaner bags, fabric similar to flannel pajamas and those of 600-count pillowcases. Other materials tested included layered coffee filters and scarves and bandannas. These scored lower, but still captured a small percentage of particles.
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Does asymptomatic transmission of Covid-19 happen?
- So far, the evidence seems to show it does. A widely cited paper published in April suggests that people are most infectious about two days before the onset of coronavirus symptoms and estimated that 44 percent of new infections were a result of transmission from people who were not yet showing symptoms. Recently, a top expert at the World Health Organization stated that transmission of the coronavirus by people who did not have symptoms was “very rare,” but she later walked back that statement.
Despite the apparent lack of progress, administration officials said they remained confident that they could eventually come to an agreement.
“Those deadlines, as you well know on Capitol Hill, always work magic in the 11th hour,” Mark Meadows, the former Republican House member from North Carolina who is now White House chief of staff, said after meeting with Mr. McConnell.
But if Republicans believe they can run down the clock and then try to force Democrats into taking a less generous deal, they may be mistaken. Democrats think they have significant leverage in the negotiations and hold the political upper hand. They have shown recently that they are not afraid to block a Republican plan and let the public know they found it insufficient.
Some Republicans do not relish the prospect of getting jammed at the last minute either, “You’re delivered the deal and so much of it is, is it a take it or leave it?” Ms. Murkowski said. “That’s not really right either.”
Republicans are well aware that no matter what is in the final package, they probably will not receive much credit for producing another round of pandemic aid, and instead will draw criticism from conservatives for spending too much and from progressives for not doing enough. But the alternative is even more politically dangerous as they fight to retain their majority.
Polls already show that public dissatisfaction is rising about Republicans’ handling of the pandemic.
“Far too many families are continuing to face serious health care and economic challenges,” Mr. McConnell said on Thursday. “So Congress’s support for our people must continue as well.”
Emily Cochrane contributed reporting.
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