Good morning,
There might not be much more to say about this floundering team beyond what was written in my game story (here) from last night’s 5-3 loss t the Rockies.
Then again, there are probably some more words merited regarding the Padres’ offense.
It is astonishing that a team with this many good hitters is performing so poorly.
Moreover, it is shocking an offense with three players ranked in the top 25 in OPS (not counting new acquisition Adam Frazier) could be this up and down.
Here is a look at the Padres’ offensive streakiness this season:
(baseball-reference, STATS)
What it comes down to is that virtually all year, there have been two or more players at a time that have created voids in the lineup. What that has done is deflate the effect of the relatively consistent production by Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. No matter how good that trio has been for the majority of the season, if Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers (late June) or Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham (currently) are running ice cold at the same time, there are going to be a number of games where runs are difficult to come by.
Grisham and Pham have decent overall numbers. Pham has a .365 on-base percentage. Grisham has a .339 OBP. But they are a combined 7-for-69 since July 20. (Pham is 4-for-35 with a double and a homer; Grisham is 3-for-34 with no extra-base hits.)
“That’s one of the deals right now,” Jayce Tingler said. “You have (stretches) you go through some ups and downs. Right now, we’ve got a couple guys that just aren’t feeling it.”
Here is how things have ebbed and flowed for some of the Padres’ main contributors:
- Pham was among the major leagues’ best hitters (.968 OPS) from mid-May to mid-July, but he has endured long cold stretches before and after that. He was hitting .198 with a .626 OPS on May 26, 163 plate appearances into the season.
- Grisham was batting .301 with an .898 OPS through 36 games when he went on the injured list in May and is batting .199 with a .647 OPS in the 42 games since returning in June.
- Jurickson Profar batted .218 with a .604 OPS while starting 53 of the season’s first 70 games. He has batted .298 with an .848 OPS while starting just 15 of the Padres’ past 37 games.
- Hosmer hit .293 with a .777 OPS through May 28, .175 with a .450 OPS from May 29 to June 29 and has hit .368 with a .948 OPS since then.
- Myers had a 1.012 OPS his first 15 games, a .583 OPS his next 40 and has a .857 OPS his past 41.
Speaking after last night’s game, Tingler said this: “We’ve got enough depth. We’ve got enough good ballplayers.”
He almost undoubtedly had Tatis’ current absence in mind when he said that. The Padres will be without their star shortstop for at least seven more games due to his latest shoulder dislocation.
What Tingler said was true even before the Padres got Adam Frazier in a trade a week ago. Frazier ranks third in the NL in average (.318), 10th in OBP (.379) and 22nd in OPS (.818).
“We’ve done it before,” Tingler said of surviving without Tatis. “It just takes everybody to do their jobs.”
That doesn’t mean everyone has to crush the ball. The Padres had an OK .725 OPS while going 6-3 without Tatis in April and a solid .768 OPS while going 7-1 without Tatis in May.
Thing was, they were pitching a lot better back then. Their staff ERA was 2.18 during his April absence and 2.07 while he was out in May. Mostly due to the starters’ inefficiency, Padres pitchers have a 4.71 ERA over the past 14 games. They are 7-7 in that stretch.
“Those things are going to turn,” Tingler said. “We’re going to get the pitching; we’re going to get the timely hits.”
That seemed entirely plausible the first 40 times Tingler said it this season. But the Padres are running out of time to make it actually true.
Tatis update
Tatis was placed on the 10-day injured list yesterday with left shoulder inflammation caused by his shoulder dislocating again Friday. (Story here.)
According to Tingler and others, Tatis’ shoulder did not pop back in its socket as quickly and the residual inflammation was more severe than the previous times Tatis has had the issue this year. However, the Padres say an MRI yesterday revealed there was not significantly more damage to his labrum than at the time of his last MRI. That is good news. Had there been significant new tearing, Tatis almost certainly would have been shut down for the season and would undergo arthroscopic surgery soon.
There is still a possibility his season is over, but the Padres are hopeful the 10 days (or possibly a little more than that) will allow him to play on and hopefully put off surgery until after the season.
Tingler reiterated that the Padres and Tatis will balance the benefits he can provide by continuing to play this season against the risk of further damage.
“He’s got his mind set on playing this year and doing everything in his power to get back on the field with the team,” Tingler said last night. “But obviously, he’s young. He’s got a career in front of him. We’ve got 14 years. So we’re going to weigh all those things, he’s going to weigh all those things and make the best decision.”
Been there, done this
Yu Darvish continued to struggle last night, allowing five runs, three of them on solo homers. However, he did go six innings for the first time in four starts and allowed just two other hits.
His fastballs maintained their velocity and movement throughout the game, and it was difficult to determine at most points that he was struggling with his other pitches. As has been the case lately, though, he missed on enough pitches to have it hurt.
He has allowed at least four runs in four of his past five starts after doing so in just three of his first 16 starts.
“I’m not necessarily looking at it negatively,” he said. “… The past couple, three or four games, I feel like each game I’m improving. I feel like it’s getting better little by little. It kind of seems similar to how it was in 2019 where things weren’t working that well but it gradually got better, (and) at one point it became really good. That’s how I’m feeling right now.”
Darvish had a 5.01 ERA over his first 18 starts of ’19 before going on a fantastic run that extended into this year. In that span, from July 12, 2019, to June 27, he had a 2.41 ERA and 0.90 WHIP and went at least six innings in all but 10 of his 41 starts.
Pitching plans
Chris Paddack felt a twinge in his left side early in his between-starts bullpen on Friday and stopped throwing. He was diagnosed with a left oblique strain and yesterday was placed on the 10-day IL.
Reiss Knehr, who has allowed five runs on four hits and six walks in 5 1/3 innings in his two starts for the Padres, was recalled from Triple-A and will start in Paddack’s place today.
There is a potential salvation here.
The Padres are off Monday and Thursday this week. That means if Paddack is down just the 10 days, today will be the only time they have to bring in someone to fill his spot in the rotation.
“If we were in one of those stretches where we were playing 30 or 31 in a row. …” Tingler said, exaggerating only slightly about some of the lengthy runs of games the Padres had in the season’s first half. “The thing that does benefit us are the two off days coming up.”
If Paddack were to be out longer and the Padres did not want to recall Knehr again, they might be set up well for a bullpen game even when they get into a 13-game stretch that begins Friday.
Left-handed reliever Matt Strahm, who has been highly effective in multiple-inning stints, is expected to be activated before Tuesday’s game in Oakland after his rehab from last fall’s patellar surgery. Additionally, Dinelson Lamet’s next step is pitching in games, and barring setback with his forearm should be back and contributing out of the bullpen during the long stretch.
Gore update
One of the most frequent questions I get is about MacKenzie Gore, the Padres’ top prospect.
Well, here is some good news. The left-hander has been in Arizona working on his mechanics and yesterday faced batters in a game. The reports were extremely good regarding his fastball’s zip and its location.
The 22-year-old Gore, who has fallen into bad habits he has been unable to break, had a 5.85 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in six starts for Triple-A El Paso. He is expected to be back pitching in the minors soon.
Tidbits
- Machado hit a 398-foot single that hit off the base of the wall in right-center field. It is doubtful even Tatis would have turned it into a double, as the 111.9 missile bounced directly to center fielder Sam Hilliard. It was the seventh single in the majors this season that has gone at least 398 feet.
- Cronenworth homered for the second time in three games — after hitting one in the previous 24 games.
- Frazier’s double in the third inning was his 29th of the season, tied for second most in the NL.
- Last night’s crowd of 44,144 was the largest crowd at Petco Park since 44,407 watched the Padres play the Cardinals on June 29, 2019.
It happens
I made a mistake in Friday’s newsletter when I wrote Machado led the NL in RBIs. No idea how I did that. I knew the Marlins’ Jesus Aguilar had more.
Anyway, Machado went out Friday night and drove in four runs to move into a tie with Aguilar.
I didn’t get a chance to talk to Machado yesterday. If I had, I would have told him how I speak things into existence in a positive way. The reason I would have told him that is because his most frequent excuse lately when he doesn’t want to talk to me is that he selectively claims my quoting him about some facet of his game leads to his going cold in that area.
I don’t know. Maybe my words just mean more than Manny’s.
A break
This will be the last newsletter until Saturday.
I have a family situation that needs attending to. Jeff Sanders will cover today’s game and the two games in Oakland. Please read his stuff on our Padres page.
Once I get back, I will do a newsletter almost every day through the end of the season.
Talk to you Saturday.
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August 01, 2021 at 08:30PM
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Padres Daily: Too many streakers; Tatis prognosis; pitching plans - The San Diego Union-Tribune
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